Is Games on The Favorite Always a Winning Strategy?

Here’s a question I get all the time: “Should I just bet on favorites? They win more often, right?” Well, yes and no. Let’s cut through the noise and talk about when betting on favorites makes sense and when it’s a trap.

First, Let’s Get Real About Favorites

What makes a team a favorite? Simple:

• Better record
• Superior talent
• Home field advantage
• Better recent form
• Favorable matchups

But here’s what most people miss: being the favorite doesn’t mean they’re a good bet. The odds tell you how likely they are to win, but that’s only half the story.

The Math That Matters

Let’s break this down with real numbers:

If you bet $100 on a -200 favorite:

• Best case: You win $50
• Worst case: You lose $100

If you bet $100 on a +200 underdog:

• Best case: You win $200
• Worst case: You lose $100

See the problem? With favorites, you’re risking more to win less. This means you need to win a lot more often just to break even.

When Betting Favorites Actually Works

There are times when backing the chalk makes sense:

1. When the Public is Wrong
   • Everyone’s betting the underdog
   • The line moves in your favor
   • You’re getting better odds than you should
2. In Specific Sports
   • Tennis (top seeds in early rounds)
   • Boxing/MMA (clear skill mismatches)
   • Soccer (elite teams vs. bottom feeders)
3. In Parlays (Sometimes)
   • Combining solid favorites can create value
   • But remember: one loss kills the whole ticket

When to Run Away from Favorites

Avoid betting favorites when:

1. The Price is Too High
   • Anything over -250 usually isn’t worth the risk
   • You need to win 71.5% of -250 bets just to break even
   • That’s really, really hard to do
2. Everyone’s on Them
   • Heavy public action often inflates the price
   • The more “obvious” the bet seems, the more careful you should be
3. They’re Coming Off a Big Win
   • Teams often let down after emotional victories
   • This is especially true in college sports

The Hidden Traps

Here’s what trips up most people betting favorites:

1. The “They Can’t Lose” Mentality
   • Every team can lose
   • Just ask the 2007 Patriots
   • Or any huge favorite in March Madness
2. Chasing Losses with Big Favorites
   • Trying to “get well” with -300 teams
   • This is how bankrolls die
   • Fast
3. Not Understanding Value
   • Winning isn’t enough
   • You need to win often enough to overcome the juice
   • Most people never do the math

A Better Approach

Instead of blindly betting favorites, try this:

1. Look for Value First
   • Compare your odds to trusted power ratings
   • Shop for the best lines
   • Only bet when you’re getting the best of it
2. Consider the Context
   • How does the favorite typically perform in this spot?
   • Are there any red flags (injuries, travel, etc.)?
   • What’s the motivation level?
3. Manage Your Money
   • Never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a favorite
   • Keep detailed records
   • Know when to pass

Smart Alternatives

Can’t find value in the favorites? Try these instead:

1. Team Totals
   • Often less public action
   • More predictable than sides
   • Better prices
2. First Half Lines
   • Favorites tend to start strong
   • Less variance than full game
   • Often better value
3. Live Betting
   • Wait for in-game opportunities
   • Better odds after early game swings
   • More information to work with

Bottom Line

Betting favorites can work, but it’s not as simple as “they win more often.” You need to:

• Find real value, not just likely winners
• Manage your risk carefully
• Know when to pass
• Keep detailed records
• Stay disciplined

Remember: The goal isn’t to pick winners. It’s to find bets where the probability of winning is higher than what the odds suggest. Sometimes that’s a favorite, sometimes it’s not. The smart money knows the difference.

And one final tip: If everyone’s telling you a favorite “can’t lose,” that’s usually the perfect time to look the other way.